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 Frank Howard Allen Blog 
Monday, 31 March 2008
Posted by: Brendan Coen AT 03:01 pm   |  Permalink   |  0 Comments  |  Email
Friday, 28 March 2008


   Market Watch

Home prices fall a record 10.7% in past year
Of 20 cities, only Charlotte holds on to meager appreciation

Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller home price index for 20 cities fell a record 2.4 percent between December and January and has dropped a record 10.7 percent from the same period a year ago, according to January figures released Tuesday.  Of the 20 cities studied, all posted declines year-over-year except Charlotte, N.C., which rose 1.8 percent.  All 20 cities posted month-to-month declines.

A separate index from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) showed a smaller 3 percent year-over-year decline and a 1.1 percent December-to-January drop.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS:
  • National surveys such as these are useful in measuring broad macroeconomic trends but are of marginal value to the individual consumer in the process of buying or selling a home.  That’s because real estate prices are set at the local level and can vary dramatically from market to market, neighborhood to neighborhood, and home to home based on a variety of factors.
  • NAR on Tuesday reported an increase in sales nationally for the first time in seven months.  This gain is encouraging because increases in sales were not expected until the second half of the year. According to a C.A.R. report, February sales volume in California was up 9.5 percent compared with January, marking the fourth month in a row that figure inched higher
  • In some markets, like Sacramento, falling prices have recently stimulated sales as buyers take advantage of the downturn.  As inventories of homes are drawn down, prices should begin to stabilize.

To read the full story, please click here.


   San Francisco Chronicle

Just a tidbit of good news on home sales

Wall Street and others cautiously applauded this week’s home sales reports as a sign that the real estate and stock markets may be “scraping along the bottom” in preparation for some slight improvement later this year or in early 2009.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS:

  • There is increasing optimism that the Federal Reserve’s recent efforts to lower interest rates and shore up Bear Stearns are having a positive effect on the stock market and may start to bolster home sales later in the year.  While it is too early to call a “bottom” to the decline, these signs are positive indicators.
  • A large inventory of homes to choose from, favorable interest rates, and increases in the FHA and conventional mortgage loan limits mean consumers will continue to experience favorable pricing in many areas of the state.

To read the full story, please click here.


     Sacramento Bee

Federal Housing Finance Board acts to expand funding pool for mortgages

The Federal Home Loan Bank system will be allowed to double the amount of capital it can spend to purchase mortgage bonds.  Twelve privately funded Federal Home Loan Banks will be permitted to purchase about $100 million in mortgage bonds over the next two years.  These bonds are packaged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and will help ensure there is cash in the system for lenders to lend and consumers to borrow.

 

 

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS
  • This action will bring much-needed liquidity to a home loan market that has been wanting for investors since last summer’s subprime mortgage crisis.
  • More mortgage capital means a greater number of consumers will be able to obtain a mortgage to purchase a home or refinance their existing home.

To read the full story, please click here.


In other news:

    National Public Radio

Home sales, consumer sentiment hit lows

Consumer confidence skidded to its lowest level in five years thanks to rising prices, a troubled housing market, and tighter credit, The Conference Board reported.  The measure was far below what was expected.

To read the full story, please click here.

     Los Angeles Times

FHA loans can ease the mortgage squeeze

The federal agency may aid those with little equity or cash for a down payment

The Depression-era FHA program is experiencing a renaissance now that the size of loans it can insure has been sharply increased.

To read the full story, please click here.

     The New York Times

The affluent, too, couldn’t resist adjustable rates

Affluent consumers increasingly are ensnared in the home mortgage crisis thanks to adjustable-rate mortgages they can’t refinance.  Here’s what some are doing about it.

To read the full story, please click here.

    MarketWatch

Real estate bargain hunting:  Three lessons from a one-day tour of Foreclosureville

The Sacramento suburb of Lincoln was the fastest-growing suburb in the U.S. from 2000-2006.  But foreclosures turned entire neighborhoods into ghost towns.  Today, Lincoln is showing signs of recovery:  14 months of foreclosure inventory has been reduced to two months and multiple offers are becoming more common.

To read the full story, please click here.

Posted by: Brendan Coen AT 11:48 am   |  Permalink   |  0 Comments  |  Email
Thursday, 20 March 2008


CNBC

S&P sees end to subprime mortgage writedowns

Standard & Poor's said subprime write-downs for large financial institutions are likely past the halfway mark, but they could still hit $285 billion.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

 S&P's statement gave a boost to financial stocks and helped Wall Street indexes pare losses.
 The purging of bad loans in the subprime market through foreclosure or refinancing ultimately will strengthen everyone's ability to obtain mortgages.
 Fewer foreclosures mean fewer vacant homes, which may make a neighborhood a more desirable place in which to live. That, in turn, could increase the demand for housing.

To read the full story, please click here.

Bakersfield Californian
Commercial real estate market is running strong

Bakersfield's housing market is facing tough times, but commercial real estate in the area remains relatively strong, due partly to demand from the agriculture and oil industries.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

 Demand for multifamily housing has surged as potential home buyers face tougher mortgage requirements, higher debt payments, and declining home values.
 The office market is solid, but warehouse and distribution sectors may slow if the economy weakens further.
 Banks have had trouble selling debt so financing is tight, but the federal government is stepping in aggressively with moves designed to protect large investment banks.

To read the full story, please click here.

Bloomberg

Bear Stearns Rescue Is `Finger in Dike,' Scholars Say

With Bear Stearns Cos.' rescue, the $200 billion subprime crisis joins a long history of government bailouts to preserve jobs, homes, and savings.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

 Bear Stearns failing would have reverberated well beyond the investment banking sector. Large investment bankers such as Bear Stearns provide much of the capital that eventually finds its way into the pool of money used to fund mortgage loans.
 Most investment bankers are heavily leveraged. That means they fund investments by borrowing. If they invest well, they can pay off debt and still make a profit. But if no one will lend to them, investment bankers can neither pay debt nor make investments. That combination can cause an institution to fail. Bear Stearns was not the only heavily leveraged investment bank. Many other large Wall Street firms also are dependent on the ability to borrow to survive, so a loss of confidence resulting from the failure of a major player could easily have brought down several others.
 The credit crunch, or consumers' difficulty obtaining mortgage loans, is one of the greatest hindrances to a real estate market rebound. In recent months, even prospective buyers with good credit have had trouble securing a loan. If financial markets stabilize, that could help boost demand for housing.

To read the full story, please click here.
Posted by: Brendan Coen AT 06:30 pm   |  Permalink   |  0 Comments  |  Email
Thursday, 13 March 2008
   Yahoo! Real Estate

Housing: Best time to buy in four years

Valuations—the difference between a home’s actual price and what it should cost—are the lowest they’ve been in four years.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

• More than 88 percent of 330 housing markets surveyed showed price declines and improved affordability during the last three months of 2007, according to bank National City Corp. and financial analysis firm Global Insight.
• The survey covered home valuations during the last quarter of 2007, but there's reason to believe that valuations are even more favorable for buyers today, according to the authors of the report.
• The biggest gains in affordability occurred in California, Michigan and Florida, which are areas that also have been some of the hardest hit by foreclosures. Those states registered 43 of the 50 biggest price declines.

To read the full story, please click here.

 CNN Money
Home equity slips below 50 percent
Homeowners’ debt on their houses exceeded their equity for the first time since the Federal Reserve Board began tracking it in 1945, falling below 50 percent.
MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

• Today’s low equity is a result of lax lending standards during the housing boom, when many buyers were able to obtain mortgages with little or no money down. Although some of those buyers could not afford their homes and lost them to foreclosure, some could afford houses—with help from alternative loan models—and but for those loans would have found homeownership beyond their reach.
• The statewide median price of existing single-family homes for January 2008 was $430,370.  The last time we had a comparable median price was in March 2004, when the median was $428,060. Homeowners who bought their homes before 2004 will likely have more equity than those who purchased since 2004.
• The median home price in January 2003 was $336,210. Comparing the current median to five years ago, it is now 28 percent higher. People who buy a home and hold onto it at least five years will usually come out ahead.
• A house is not a stock. It’s always been first and foremost a place to live, to raise a family or to retire. Even when prices were falling, home buyers who pursued a buy and hold strategy—retaining the property at least five years—have almost always come out ahead in the long-run. Historically, the value of single-family homes in California has increased about 9 percent a year.

To read the full story, please click here.
 
   North County Times

Buyers jump into murky housing market

While low interest rates and depressed home prices have started to attract entry-level home buyers, the typical home in San Diego County remains out of reach for the average family.
MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

• Bleak economic news is usually followed by a downward turn in mortgage interest rates, but despite some fairly poor news this week about banks selling securitized loans at fire sale prices, the overall average of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased by just two basis points (.02 percent). The fact that news that would usually produce a significant decline in mortgage rates instead preceded only a modest drop could be a sign that rates may soon go up. Consumers should take advantage of low interest rates while they last.
• According to home-finance corporation Freddie Mac, U.S. house prices have climbed 6.2 percent a year over the past 30 years.
• The recently passed economic stimulus package raised the conforming loan limit to up to $729,750 in some areas. So-called "expanded conforming" loans should provide some borrowers with an opportunity to finance or refinance at lower rates than the jumbo market may currently offer, provided borrowers can meet the guidelines for a conforming loan, which are usually more restrictive than jumbo market underwriting criteria.

To read the full story, please click here.

In other news:
Posted by: Brendan Coen AT 08:49 pm   |  Permalink   |  0 Comments  |  Email
Thursday, 06 March 2008



   MSN Money

Foreclosure “crisis” is overblown

Although the national foreclosure rate rose 79 percent between December 2006 and December 2007, the rate was still only 1.033 percent of all homes. This is a regional problem, not reflective of the overall real estate market.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

• Foreclosure statistics are rarely presented in context. Because about 30 percent of homes are owned free and clear, only seven-tenths of 1 percent of all homes were in foreclosure last year.
• If you rank the top 100 foreclosure areas identified by RealtyTrac as reported by MSN Money, only 34 areas had foreclosure rates above the group average.
• Fifty-one areas had foreclosure rates of 1 percent or less.
• Foreclosure rates actually fell in 14 of the top 100 foreclosure areas.

To read the full story, please click here.

  The New Yorker

Home Economics

As many as 15 million homeowners now owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Homeownership isn't building wealth for these people, James Surowiecki editorializes.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

• Interest rates on home equity lines of credit are far below the rates of most credit cards, so homeowners who are able to tap those lines for emergencies accumulate less debt than renters forced to charge expenses at higher rates. A $30,000 home equity loan is running at about 5.75 percent this week, according to Bankrate.com.
• Overall, the median net worth of a lower-income homeowner is more than 13 times that of a renter with comparable income, according to Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.
• Ownership is forced saving. Typically, payments in the first few years of a mortgage are applied to interest. As time passes, however, more and more of each payment is applied to the outstanding loan amount, accumulating equity that can be recaptured, if needed, through an equity line of credit or when the house sells.

To read the full story, please click here.
 
  National Public Radio

Bernanke Warns of More Foreclosures, Despite Aid

More home foreclosures are coming, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned on Tuesday. A “vigorous response” is needed.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

• Although high concentrations of foreclosures can be found in certain communities, these neighborhoods are not representative of the state as a whole. Foreclosure rates vary widely between neighborhoods, cities and counties.
• The declining home prices that have resulted from the large numbers of foreclosures in some areas have put entry-level homes within reach of many would-be home buyers who couldn’t afford homes in previous markets.
• There are several private and public initiatives already underway or in the works to help distressed home buyers.

To read the full story, please click here.

Posted by: Brendan Coen AT 07:46 pm   |  Permalink   |  0 Comments  |  Email

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Frank Howard Allen
Frank Howard Allen Realtors
16203-A First Street
P.O. Box 105
Guerneville, CA 95446
Phone: (707) 869-3865
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Email: hermanjh@aol.com
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